Thu 30 Sep 2004
Thursday, September 30, 2004: Well there were a number of possible scenarios for yesterday’s games. The best was for us to win and for the Twins to sweep the Yankees. The worst was for us to lose and for the Yankees to execute a sweep. Anything in the middle would have been of varying utility.
The worst-case scenario happened. So in the age-old tradition of being a sports fan, let me spin this into a little bit of sweet lemon rationalization: If we were going to lose, a day like today was good for us. For reasons that this diary has chronicled ceaselessly, we came up a bit short, and a 4 game Magic Number, which the Yankees had going into yesterday, is a razor-thin margin. At least with three games cut from that magic number we now can get ready for the playoffs knowing that we will have to get it done on the road. We can rest guys judiciously. We can position ourselves. Better for that to have happened yesterday than for us to have left it all on the field over the weekend only to come up short and to have left ourselves in a less-than-ideal position for Tuesday when it all matters most.
Two main issues right now: The first is that, without recounting yesterday’s loss, which was not pleasant, Pedro’s performance is suddenly a source of concern in a way that it has not been since April. He has lost four starts in a row. He has lost two in a row to the Rays. He lost that one to the Yankees last weekend. He has not looked good. There is no intimidation factor. Maybe he is fatigued, and if that is the main cause, he should get rest between now and next week. We cannot win the World Series without Pedro being a factor. The debate over who our #1 starter is has long been decided. But he is a vital piece of the puzzle, and we cannot afford to have him spin out of control now.
The second issue is how we prepare for the playoffs. I think we need to continue playing most of our main guys on most days. Every year at least one team that has secured its place in the postseason shuts it down. Then when the playoffs kick in they expect to get back to where they were when they were at their peak. That does not happen, and even a little slippage against a playoff team can be fatal. Rest a few guys a day. Get the pitching staff in line. Do not let the relievers get stagnant, do not let them get tired. Do that and we’ll be in good shape. I have faith. And even weakened, I want to beat the damned Orioles.
September 30th, 2004 at 9:03 pm
Derek,
Let me interject some cold realism into the discussion here. It seems to me that both Red Sox and Yankees face rather similar problems right now, and that is pitching. Pedro’s slump is not surprising. In past years he has either gone down with a weak arm or lost his effectiveness at the end of the season, and espcially in cooler weather (as it is in the Northeast in October). I will not go so far as to bring out the haunting epithet of “Mr. May” (the pain of Winfield’s failure still stings the loyal Yankees fan), but Pedro is certianly not so scary right now. And neither are any of the other Sox pitchers, save Schilling. The Yankees, of course, are in a bit weaker starting pitching situation, on paper at least. Mussina has revived it seems, and Hernandez may be good, if his arm is not really sapped. Beyond that we are quite vulnerable. The difference may well come down to the bull pens, and there, I think we have the advantage. Rivera is not unbeatable, but he looks more dependable than Foulke just now. Gordon, when he is on, is better than Timlin or Embrey. So, I am predicting relatively high scores in the second round show-down. Home field advantage will help the good guys, and two games out of Schilling will help you, but the Yankees will prove to have more capacity to stop the hits in the late innings and they will prevail again. I don’t mean this as a boast, just cold, hard analysis.
October 1st, 2004 at 11:40 am
Pedro is, as I have indicated, a cause for concern, though it may be worth noting that he may well have beaten you guys last friday night were it not for Tito’s Gradyesque act of hubris against the baseball Gods. On paper Rivera may be better than Foulke, but in fact, of Rivera’s 4 blown saves this year, two are against the Sox. And even a wekened pedro is far better than whatever you guys are claiming as a second starter, Bronson Arroyo is coming into his own, and whoever we run out there as our fourth starter has experience and success in the postseason. Your middle relievers have been severely overtaxed. And we are a better offense than you are.
All that said, i think either team would be foolish to think that the ALCA matchup is a formality. The Twins, despite how they did against you guys these last three days when they mailed it in, are tough, and the A’s-Angels are not only going to be dangerous, but because both will have had to have played until the last out, they might be going in with the most playoff-caliber baseball.
It will be a whole lot of fun for the next month, that’s for sure.
dc