Thu 2 Oct 2008
Wick Sloane ‘76 writes on the financial crisis.
Do any of us really how close we are to finding even our checking accounts empty or inaccessible? The press must ask this.
Acres of press coverage of the financial crisis continue to focus only on financial risk, not operational risk. Financial risk is whether a share in Company X worth $100 today will be worth $150 or $75 tomorrow. Operational risk is whether, if we sell the share for $100 today, we will ever receive the $100. Operational risk is whether the capital markets can complete the transactions required for our employer to have cash to meet the payroll and to complete the electronic funds transfer of our paycheck so that on payday we can put our debit card into the gas pump for a few gallons of $4 gasoline on the way home.
Call this crisis, for example, Hurricane Katrina. The financial risk is the severity of the storm. The operational risk is whether the levees will hold back the water. A financial transit system of staggering complexity moves the money through the global markets to our checking account to the gas pump and back again. How is this system doing in the hurricane?
Follow Wick down the rabbit hole for more. Anyone who really wants to hedge this sort of risk ought to have a cache of emergency supplies (cash, food, water, rifle, et cetera) in his house. My take? Sounds like the sort of crazy talk that you hear at a market bottom. Then again, I never thought that Lehman would go bankrupt . . .

October 2nd, 2008 at 6:52 am
The sky is falling.
October 2nd, 2008 at 8:28 am
I did not read Wick’s piece but there are reports that many colleges, especially the less rich ones, have begun to have trouble getting their hands on their operating funds. Part of this was because many of the institutions had put them in a fund Wachovia was holding; that particular problem should be easing up with the Citicorp takeover of Wachovia, but other, more serious, ones may emerge.
And all endowments will be falling. The recent days of big construction and adding luxe housing/dining/recreation offerings should soon be over (but I would think Harvard will go ahead with adding its additional campus and that the Stetson/Sawyer project will be completed). At schools with small or no endowments and those relying heavily on state funds in jurisdictions that face huge shortfalls, things must be especially scary.
October 2nd, 2008 at 9:41 am
The problem Larry George describes was in the WSJ today (and the part of Wachovia that manages these funds was not taken over by Citigroup):
The example of Phillips Academy demonstrates why large endowments need to be professionally managed by a chief investment manager, and not remain in the part-time hands of trustees.
October 2nd, 2008 at 10:28 am
Does Williams have any money in the fund? Does anyone have any idea of what Williams’ exposure to the investments that have tanked has been?
October 2nd, 2008 at 10:36 am
It would be good for the national character to get over the wide spread, faulty notion that one should expect to lead a risk free life and that consequently one need not be vigilantly prudent.
October 2nd, 2008 at 11:23 am
Frank,
I don’t know much about finance but it seems to me that all the prudence in the world would not safeguard one if banks collapse. Unless of course, you have no mortgage, no kids in college, a private supply of food, medicine, gas, etc. etc… and lots and lots of cash in your mattress.
October 2nd, 2008 at 12:13 pm
Wick says:
While some of the concerns may be valid with regard to some types of funds, your checking account is really not at risk in the same way, and Wick should find another bank if they can’t explain the basics of deposit insurance (it is quite simple, check out the website). Obviously if the whole system collapses this might be different, but we really are not that bad off.
Even in the event of a failure or fire sale, good old fashioned bank deposits will be available - possibly with no interrupted service, but at the very least within 48-72 hours. That is the whole point of FDIC insurance. The banks pay an insurance premium (”assessment”) based on their volume of deposits, and that goes into the Deposit Insurance Fund. The DIF has to be mantained at certain levels in relation to overall deposits, and premiums on the banks are raised accordingly if it falls below the mandated levels. In the event that the fund is exhausted (highly unlikely), FDIC has a line of credit at Treasury. Federal deposit insurance is backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government, and no depositor has ever lost a single dollar of insured funds. Ever. When a bank fails, the FDIC acquires the assets and sells them, and hopefully an assuming bank will take on the insured deposits (cheap way to expand the customer base). The proceeds from selling assets go toward replenishing the DIF as well. If a $30 billion bank fails (*cough, Indymac, cough*), that doesn’t mean it is a $30 billion hit to the fund. Estimates on that are reported to be $4-8 billion. That is a lot, but the fund is far larger…
Investments are obviously a whole other situation, and the two shouldn’t be conflated - it makes people panic and withdraw money, thereby furthering reducing capital on hand for other things. Investment entails risk - some things are riskier than others, bank deposits aren’t risky and therefore the interest on using your money is lower. Make your own decisions accordingly.
October 2nd, 2008 at 12:35 pm
Mom: True - then I quess that means we all have dispensation to be foolishly improvident.
October 2nd, 2008 at 1:07 pm
Ronit -
Thank you for post #3. I had heard bits and pieces but had been too busy to look into it.
October 2nd, 2008 at 8:47 pm
My Congressman just sent me this piece on signs of student loan money drying up locally. http://www.news8.net/news/stories/1008/558396.html
I take it that he is voting “Yea.”