Mon 20 Oct 2008
Now that 7-11 has gotten in on the electoral prediction game, I suggest that the time has come for EphBlog to jump on the bandwagon, because, hey, no matter how much you people hate Eph Pundit, it’s better than ungrounded rants about Bolin fellowships, no? We did this four years ago on WSO, and, though I hesitate to blow my own trumpet, I was closest to the eventual result (I think I predicted 284 votes for Bush, when most posters were giving Kerry 300+). That garnered me a Spring Fling bracelet as a prize.
This time, sadly, I have no Spring Fling bracelets to give out, but the winner will receive an etched Williams College beer stein shipped from Goff Sports. The winner of the contest will be determined as the commenter whose prediction for the winning candidate’s electoral tally comes closest to the actual result. If there is a tie, the tie will be broken by whoever came closer in their estimate for the winner’s share of the popular vote.
Go here to simulate the electoral college results.
I’ll start. Here are my predictions:
Electoral College: Obama 286, McCain 252
Popular Vote: Obama 48.5%, McCain 46%
Here’s the map as I see it:
Make sure you use a working email address when you comment, and only 1 submission per person, please.
October 20th, 2008 at 7:11 pm
Electoral College: Obama 333, McCain 205
Popular Vote: Obama 50.8%, McCain 46%
October 20th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
EC: Obama 348-190
Popular Vote: Obama 52%, McCain 46%
dcat
October 20th, 2008 at 7:44 pm
Didn’t Buck Owens sing something about a tiger and his tail?
October 20th, 2008 at 7:48 pm
I like Derek’s numbers, but what the heck, why not throw caution to the wind and hope for a blowout.
Electoral:Obama 351, McCain 187
Popular Vote:Obama 54%, McCain 45%
October 20th, 2008 at 7:59 pm
Ronit- the map you posted… plus NV, OH, MO, NC, FL ..
You should put a time limit on predictions.
October 20th, 2008 at 8:03 pm
gonna need (a couple of) numbers, ptc…
I’ll shut off comments a week before the election. Might bump it to the top of the queue before then.
October 20th, 2008 at 8:13 pm
Ronit- before the election?? That is unfair if you are only going to take one prediction per person…..
Why do you need numbers? For Ohmaha? Ok. What I said above… all of ME, plus 1 for Omaha…
365 for Obama to 173 for McCain
October 20th, 2008 at 8:19 pm
54% Obama, 44% McCain
October 20th, 2008 at 9:00 pm
Will beat me to it — I agree with Obama at 333 (your map plus narrow wins in Nevada, Florida, N.C. — thanks to far superior ground game in the first two, and unprecedented minority turn-out in the latter). McCain narrowly holds onto Missouri and Ohio — but just barely — and Obama makes it surprisingly close in Georgia. I am tempted to toss Missouri into Obama’s camp after the incredible turn-out at his rallies there, but I think McCain will squeeze it out. Popular vote: Obama 51.5, Mccain 46.5
October 20th, 2008 at 9:19 pm
Speaking of the election, check out two recent profiles that mention Williams for our two congressional candidates (both of whom are WAY ahead in the polls …):
http://www.newstimes.com/ci_10769206
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/oct/20/mark-udall-outdoors-jobs-honed-skills/
October 20th, 2008 at 10:02 pm
Jeff- I think he wins NV pretty eaily… NC, FL and Ohio, I am not so sure about….
October 20th, 2008 at 11:59 pm
Yeah, can we close this thread tomorrow night and have another in a week? You could see who stayed right, but the polling will change…
October 21st, 2008 at 12:32 am
Obama: 291
McCain: 247
Obama: 48.8%
McCain: 46.1%
October 21st, 2008 at 12:48 am
Obama 344
McCain 194
Obama 51%
McCain 46%
October 21st, 2008 at 1:18 am
Obama 364
McCain 174
Obama 52.2%
McCain 45.7%
October 21st, 2008 at 7:54 am
Ken- Same map as me without Omaha?
October 21st, 2008 at 3:58 pm
I don’t know about NV, but I don’t think that Obama has a shot in hell at Virginia (the same state in which polling had Kerry +12 on election day).
1) The electorate changes slowly.
2) Consider the 2006 Senate race. Jim Webb, a conservative, populist democrat, former war hero, undersecretary of defense in the Reagan Administration, just barely squeaked out a win over George Allen, who ran a terrible campaign and had the bright idea to use racial slurs. Obama is far to the left of Webb, by any stretch; he isn’t the slightest bit conservative, has no military/defense history, no Jacksonian appeal ala Webb, and is running against a moderate-conservative veteran with immense Jacksonian appeal.
Webb’s numbers in VA are the best that Obama can hope for. He won’t get there, though. The state is not going to go blue, despite electing Mark Warner over Jim Gilmore to the Senate. Obama is not a Jim Webb democrat.
October 21st, 2008 at 4:22 pm
No predictions for electoral/popular vote, Lowell?
Oh, and do you have a source to back up the assertion that Kerry ever polled +12 in Virginia (at least, outside of a Zogby poll)?
October 21st, 2008 at 4:29 pm
Loweel- I disagree.
Since Webb ran:
1) The Democrats have registered hundreds of thousands of new voters.
2) Former Gov Warner is going to absolutely CRUSH Gilmore in the under card. At least 15 points. It will not be close. Good for Obama.
3) While African Americans represent about 12% of Americans, they represent about 19% of Virginians. This year, Blacks will vote in record numbers, and over 90% of them will vote for Obama.
4) Liberals from DC living up North.
5) Bush
6) McCains lack of message
7) McCain support for the socialist bailout.
I think you under estimate what is happening here on the ground. I give the advantage to Obama in Virginia.
October 21st, 2008 at 4:34 pm
Jim Webb, however, is an Obama democrat:
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/in_his_first_ad_jim_webb_vouch.php
October 21st, 2008 at 5:41 pm
PTC: you’re right; missed Omaha. Revise my projection to 365/173.
October 21st, 2008 at 6:21 pm
538 predicts 364 and and 375 as most likely.
October 21st, 2008 at 9:21 pm
Well, according to former Gov. Doug Wilder (and currently, a Virginia mayor) there is quite a fervor for Obama happening in that state.
So, PTC and Ken:
Normally, I aim to win, but in this case, losing to the two of you, will be my supreme pleasure!
October 22nd, 2008 at 2:40 am
OT - I hope you don’t mind, it’s eph related politics: Bill Bennett & Rick Davis on Liberal Feminists as covered on Rachel Maddow MsNBC Oct 22, 2007 - VIDEO 1 min.
October 22nd, 2008 at 11:54 am
Let me not mince words.
Bennett and Davis are complete morons.
October 22nd, 2008 at 3:21 pm
Alright - I’m going to jump into the game…my feelings on some of the swing states change almost daily, but I suppose we all have to make decisions at some point. I give Obama the Kerry states (252) plus CO (9), IA (7), MO (11), NC (15), NM (5), NV (5), OH (20), and VA (13). I left McCain the swing(ish) states of Florida and North Dakota.
Electoral
Obama: 337
McCain: 201
Popular
Obama: 50.2
McCain: 44.6
*fingers crossed*
October 22nd, 2008 at 6:36 pm
Lowell - Just dug up the RCP polling averages of “battleground states” in 2004, and Virginia was not even on their list of battleground states:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html
This confirms my impression that VA was a safe Bush state in 04. So once again, I have to ask, where exactly did you pull “Kerry was polling +12 in VA on election day” from?
October 23rd, 2008 at 9:20 pm
Well, per 538’s numbers today, I would win the electoral, and Derek, the popular.
Twelve more days. A lot could change.
October 27th, 2008 at 9:58 am
“Obama has the lead, the momentum and the organization in Virginia. The poll shows Obama leading 52% - 44%, but check out this info:
Obama has opened almost 50 offices, dispatched more than 250 paid staffers and recruited thousands of volunteers to knock on doors and call voters across the state.
The poll indicates that Obama’s staff and volunteers have made staggering gains in reaching out to Virginia’s 5 million registered voters. More than half of all voters surveyed said they have been contacted in person, on the phone or by e-mail or text message about voting for Obama, far more than said so about McCain.
Obama’s ground game is being supplemented with a highly energized base of supporters who could give him an advantage in the important get-out-the vote effort.
Seven in 10 Obama supporters said they are “very enthusiastic” about voting for him, an increase from the late September poll. By contrast, 39 percent are that keen on McCain’s candidacy, a 6 percentage-point dip over that period.
Obama has an almost 2 to 1 advantage over McCain in Northern Virginia, surpassing even the 60 percent mark that Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) and Sen. James Webb (D-Va.) racked up in the region during their successful campaigns in 2005 and 2006.
Obama is also performing far better elsewhere in Virginia than Democrats have done in recent state and federal elections. He and McCain each drew 48 percent of the vote outside Northern Virginia, a signal that Obama’s repeated visits, as well as his multimillion-dollar advertising blitz, has softened the GOP base in the more rural parts of the state.
I think one rule in politics is “don’t disrespect the part of a state that has the most voters” like the McCain campaign, through Joe McCain and Nancy Pfotenhauer, did to Northern Virginia.
On the other hand, McCain is dealing with the double whammy of Bush and Palin. First, Bush:
Bush’s unpopularity remains a central liability for McCain in Virginia; 53 percent of voters said the senator would lead the nation in the same direction as Bush has, and these voters overwhelmingly support Obama.
Then, Palin:
Palin also is dragging down McCain in Virginia, the poll indicates. Half of Virginia voters now have “strongly” or “somewhat” negative views of the Alaska governor, a 12 percentage-point increase from September.
Concerns about Palin, who is scheduled to campaign today in Fredericksburg and Leesburg, might be compounded by widespread apprehension about McCain’s taking office at 72. That would make him the oldest person to be elected to a first term as president, and 48 percent of Virginia voters said they are uncomfortable about that.”
October 31st, 2008 at 2:57 pm
I predict: Obama 338
McCain 200
Others 0
Pop Vote: Obama 52.6%
McCain 47.1%
Others .3%
November 2nd, 2008 at 12:59 pm
Mark Halperin, Time Magazine:
Electoral Vote — 349 Obama
Senate — 59 Democratic seats
House — Democrats net 28 House seats
Matthew Dowd, former Republican strategist:
Electoral Vote — 338 plus Obama
Senate — 8 plus pick up for Democrats
House — 17 plus pickup for Democrats
George Will, ABC News contributor:
Electoral Vote — 378 Obama
Senate — 8 pickups for the Democrats
House — 21 pickups for the Democrats
Donna Brazile, former Democratic strategist:
Electoral Vote — Obama 343
Senate - Democrats 59 plus runoff
House - Democrats pickup 29
George Stephanopoulos:
Electoral Vote — 353 Obama
Senate — 58, or 59 if there’s a run-off in Georgia.
House — 264 House Democrats (+28)
This is today.. Two days out… and I would say the Eph pundits are right about in line with the traditional players in this game!
November 5th, 2008 at 12:25 am
What a momentous occasion! I am (almost) speechless. I enjoyed sharing this with all of you.
God bless all.
:-)
November 5th, 2008 at 4:08 am
And indeed: it was a very good night to spend ten minutes walking through Centennial Park, remembering what it was like on election day eight years ago, looking up, alone, at the columns and figures, and reflecting.
I remember the crowd, their faces and their hope and confusion: faces of the young and hopeful, the “progressives” in a very “conservative” and backwater state, their hope that Al Gore would be something he wasn’t (yet), their imitation of the ‘liberalism’ of a Berkeley, and their disappointment.
It was not a time when people addressed each other, or spoke up; as that night ended, people dwindled, scattered home to their individual fates.
Tonight, in Nashville, has been filled with toasts and ebulations: and my wonder, as I watch others approach the stage, stand up from their chair and as a citizen addressing their fellow citizens, express their history, their hopes, their gratitude. As they feel called to speak…
As they say to those who may not have voted for the same candidate as they, “we will listen to you too, we will serve you too,” and as the Republicans, the Independents and the Dissenters raise a toast in return, “to America.”
And to look around me at people of a different colour of skin, and stare into their eyes, and realize how far we still have to go, but suddenly, in a way were not before tonight, before this act of history had come to pass– we are, finally, at last, equals — and both the greater for it.
November 6th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
Derek, (or anyone else who knows Texas…)
If you click on Texas in this TPM link you will see the breakdown of the vote there. I find this so interesting, mostly because I was under the impression that the Texas hispanic vote leans Republican.
Was this the result of Immigration Policy? Were Obama’s campaign efforts concentrated in these areas? Did the Mexican govt. ever proclaim support of Obama?
Just curious.
November 6th, 2008 at 6:05 pm
Ken- they arer re counting Omaha!
Ronit- What do the winners get?
November 6th, 2008 at 6:24 pm
Winners get a beer stein from Goff Sports… I’m holding off until Missouri and NC and Omaha have been finalized, and this post-Tuesday hangover has worn off.
November 6th, 2008 at 7:14 pm
SophMom, Parent ‘12 and all the current Ephs-
What was it like on campus on Election Night?
November 6th, 2008 at 7:24 pm
PTC: I think you may have me!
November 6th, 2008 at 7:32 pm
What’s the hold up? Are the absentee ballots counted yet? News sources are showing 100% of the precincts in and North Carolina going Democratic and Missouri Republican, both very narrowly. How narrow it is in Missouri is astonishing if you look at the statewide map of counties: a sea of red with the very occasional speck of blue (mostly in the more urban areas). The turn out in those blue specks must have been phenomenal.
November 6th, 2008 at 7:35 pm
Ken.. i think you were closer.. on the popular vote…
November 27th, 2008 at 6:52 pm
Ronit-
Dude- I win! I feel like the townie in breaking away…
When do I get my cool mug and gallon of ripple wine?
November 27th, 2008 at 8:23 pm
I gladly concede….
November 27th, 2008 at 9:01 pm
That definitely settles it then. I am the winner! To hell with all you socs, the greaser won!
I AM THE KING OF ALL EPH PUNDITS.
I want my mug personalized. “Townie pundit”.
November 27th, 2008 at 10:46 pm
The cutter rules!
Preeminent
Ephblog r
pundit
November 27th, 2008 at 11:26 pm
congrats, PTC. Your mug is on the way (I’ll do a celebratory post soonish)