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pundit

I AM THE KING OF ALL EPH PUNDITS.

I want my mug personalized. “Townie pundit”.

Dude- I win! I feel like the townie in breaking away…

When do I get my cool mug and gallon of ripple wine?

Ronit- What do the winners get?

If you click on Texas in this TPM link you will see the breakdown of the vote there. I find this so interesting, mostly because I was under the impression that the Texas hispanic vote leans Republican.

Was this the result of Immigration Policy? Were Obama’s campaign efforts concentrated in these areas? Did the Mexican govt. ever proclaim support of Obama?

Just curious.

I remember the crowd, their faces and their hope and confusion: faces of the young and hopeful, the “progressives” in a very “conservative” and backwater state, their hope that Al Gore would be something he wasn’t (yet), their imitation of the ‘liberalism’ of a Berkeley, and their disappointment.

It was not a time when people addressed each other, or spoke up; as that night ended, people dwindled, scattered home to their individual fates.

Tonight, in Nashville, has been filled with toasts and ebulations: and my wonder, as I watch others approach the stage, stand up from their chair and as a citizen addressing their fellow citizens, express their history, their hopes, their gratitude. As they feel called to speak…

As they say to those who may not have voted for the same candidate as they, “we will listen to you too, we will serve you too,” and as the Republicans, the Independents and the Dissenters raise a toast in return, “to America.”

And to look around me at people of a different colour of skin, and stare into their eyes, and realize how far we still have to go, but suddenly, in a way were not before tonight, before this act of history had come to pass– we are, finally, at last, equals — and both the greater for it.

God bless all.

:-)

Matthew Dowd, former Republican strategist:
Electoral Vote — 338 plus Obama
Senate — 8 plus pick up for Democrats
House — 17 plus pickup for Democrats

George Will, ABC News contributor:
Electoral Vote — 378 Obama
Senate — 8 pickups for the Democrats
House — 21 pickups for the Democrats

Donna Brazile, former Democratic strategist:
Electoral Vote — Obama 343
Senate – Democrats 59 plus runoff
House – Democrats pickup 29

George Stephanopoulos:
Electoral Vote — 353 Obama
Senate — 58, or 59 if there’s a run-off in Georgia.
House — 264 House Democrats (+28)

This is today.. Two days out… and I would say the Eph pundits are right about in line with the traditional players in this game!

Pop Vote: Obama 52.6%
McCain 47.1%
Others .3%

The poll indicates that Obama’s staff and volunteers have made staggering gains in reaching out to Virginia’s 5 million registered voters. More than half of all voters surveyed said they have been contacted in person, on the phone or by e-mail or text message about voting for Obama, far more than said so about McCain.

Obama’s ground game is being supplemented with a highly energized base of supporters who could give him an advantage in the important get-out-the vote effort.

Seven in 10 Obama supporters said they are “very enthusiastic” about voting for him, an increase from the late September poll. By contrast, 39 percent are that keen on McCain’s candidacy, a 6 percentage-point dip over that period.

Obama has an almost 2 to 1 advantage over McCain in Northern Virginia, surpassing even the 60 percent mark that Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) and Sen. James Webb (D-Va.) racked up in the region during their successful campaigns in 2005 and 2006.

Obama is also performing far better elsewhere in Virginia than Democrats have done in recent state and federal elections. He and McCain each drew 48 percent of the vote outside Northern Virginia, a signal that Obama’s repeated visits, as well as his multimillion-dollar advertising blitz, has softened the GOP base in the more rural parts of the state.
I think one rule in politics is “don’t disrespect the part of a state that has the most voters” like the McCain campaign, through Joe McCain and Nancy Pfotenhauer, did to Northern Virginia.

On the other hand, McCain is dealing with the double whammy of Bush and Palin. First, Bush:
Bush’s unpopularity remains a central liability for McCain in Virginia; 53 percent of voters said the senator would lead the nation in the same direction as Bush has, and these voters overwhelmingly support Obama.
Then, Palin:
Palin also is dragging down McCain in Virginia, the poll indicates. Half of Virginia voters now have “strongly” or “somewhat” negative views of the Alaska governor, a 12 percentage-point increase from September.

Concerns about Palin, who is scheduled to campaign today in Fredericksburg and Leesburg, might be compounded by widespread apprehension about McCain’s taking office at 72. That would make him the oldest person to be elected to a first term as president, and 48 percent of Virginia voters said they are uncomfortable about that.”

Twelve more days. A lot could change.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html

This confirms my impression that VA was a safe Bush state in 04. So once again, I have to ask, where exactly did you pull “Kerry was polling +12 in VA on election day” from?

Electoral
Obama: 337
McCain: 201

Popular
Obama: 50.2
McCain: 44.6

*fingers crossed*

Bennett and Davis are complete morons.

So, PTC and Ken:

Normally, I aim to win, but in this case, losing to the two of you, will be my supreme pleasure!

Since Webb ran:

1) The Democrats have registered hundreds of thousands of new voters.

2) Former Gov Warner is going to absolutely CRUSH Gilmore in the under card. At least 15 points. It will not be close. Good for Obama.

3) While African Americans represent about 12% of Americans, they represent about 19% of Virginians. This year, Blacks will vote in record numbers, and over 90% of them will vote for Obama.

4) Liberals from DC living up North.

5) Bush

6) McCains lack of message

7) McCain support for the socialist bailout.

I think you under estimate what is happening here on the ground. I give the advantage to Obama in Virginia.

Oh, and do you have a source to back up the assertion that Kerry ever polled +12 in Virginia (at least, outside of a Zogby poll)?

1) The electorate changes slowly.
2) Consider the 2006 Senate race. Jim Webb, a conservative, populist democrat, former war hero, undersecretary of defense in the Reagan Administration, just barely squeaked out a win over George Allen, who ran a terrible campaign and had the bright idea to use racial slurs. Obama is far to the left of Webb, by any stretch; he isn’t the slightest bit conservative, has no military/defense history, no Jacksonian appeal ala Webb, and is running against a moderate-conservative veteran with immense Jacksonian appeal.

Webb’s numbers in VA are the best that Obama can hope for. He won’t get there, though. The state is not going to go blue, despite electing Mark Warner over Jim Gilmore to the Senate. Obama is not a Jim Webb democrat.